As we enter 2025, the U.S. economy stands at a crossroads—moderate growth continues, but underlying risks are rising. CFRA’s latest macroeconomic outlook outlines our base case for continued expansion without a recession, while acknowledging the potential disruptions stemming from prolonged trade tensions and shifting consumer dynamics. Backed by robust corporate earnings and a resilient labor market, the economy shows strength—but softening indicators and increasing consumer debt suggest it’s no time for complacency.
This must-read report from Paul Beland, CFA, Global Head of Research for Wealth Management at CFRA, provides a comprehensive view of key macro trends, asset allocation recommendations, and risks that investors need to monitor closely.
What You’ll Learn
- CFRA’s base case for U.S. GDP growth in 2025 and 2026—and what could derail it
- The implications of continued trade wars and rising geopolitical risks
- Why corporate earnings strength may support equity markets despite volatility
- Key risks emerging from rising consumer debt and softening confidence indicators
- CFRA’s updated portfolio allocation guidance in response to shifting macro conditions
- Leading economic indicators to watch in the months ahead
