Anticipating Q4-ria

As of the close on September 22, the S&P 500 declined 5.9% since July 31. We think the market could fall to around 4,200 since it represents a Fibonacci retracement level and was the prior high in March 2023. Should there be additional weakness beyond that, the 4,000-4,100 area is also a retracement level, and the point decline is projected by a breakdown in the S&P 500’s “head & shoulders” pattern. A Q4 recovery is expected, however.