Fundamental, Research

Automotive Tariffs Set to Reshape Vehicle Pricing and Industry Profitability

Garrett Nelson, Vice President, Equity Research
25 March 2025

Summary

Automotive tariffs are back in the spotlight — and the potential implications are huge. With U.S. policy shifting toward protectionism, a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican vehicle imports could trigger a sharp rise in new vehicle prices and ripple through the supply chain. CFRA’s newest thematic research dives deep into tariff risks and which companies — from Tesla to GM and Magna — are best or worst positioned. Don’t get blindsided by auto sector volatility. This report brings clarity to one of the most urgent market-moving themes of 2025.

What You’ll Learn

  • Tariff Impact Breakdown: What a 25% import tax from Mexico and Canada means for the average U.S. new vehicle price — and why some models could jump $10K.
  • Winners vs. Losers: Company-level exposure and strategic analysis for TSLA, GM, Ford, STLA, and MGA.
  • Manufacturing Recalibration: How uncertainty could lead to increased U.S.-based production and reshaped supply chains.
  • Macro + Political Outlook: What’s motivating U.S. policy, including USMCA renegotiation talk, and how automakers are preparing.
  • Inventory & Incentives: Why dealers are pulling back on discounts — and how pricing may spike despite high inventory levels.

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