Fundamental, Research

Big Tech and Semiconductors: 7 Key Risks to the AI Trade in 2025

Angelo Zino, Equity Analyst, Senior Vice President
01 April 2025

Summary

AI-driven stocks, led by Big Tech and semiconductor companies, have powered the equity markets since late 2022. However, emerging headwinds could disrupt this trend. In this report, we identify and analyze the 7 most significant risks to the AI trade in 2025, including concerns around excess compute capacity, tariffs and export restrictions, and a likely slowdown in hyperscaler capex. We also address AI ROI challenges, and the shift towards Physical AI as a longer-term monetization catalyst.

Our analysis highlights why companies like NVIDIA, Microsoft, AMD, Meta, and other key AI players could face both near-term volatility and structural challenges. While AI remains a transformative force, investors must weigh these evolving risks when allocating to AI stocks.

What You’ll Learn

In this exclusive research report, you will gain insights into:

  • The 7 most critical AI stock risks investors need to know for 2025
  • Why excess compute capacity and a potential capex slowdown among hyperscalers could drag on AI-related returns
  • How tariffs and export restrictions may reshape AI supply chains and investment cases for Big Tech and semiconductor stocks
  • The growing debate around AI ROI and its implications for capital spending and earnings
  • How the transition toward Physical AI could unlock new long-term AI monetization opportunities
  • Why AI stocks, despite recent pullbacks, may still face further pressure in the coming quarters
  • A deep dive into how these risks specifically impact leading AI names like NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), AMD, Meta, Amazon, and more

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