Heightened Headwinds

After falling nearly 8% from July 31 through October 3, the S&P 500 attempted a rally that was repelled after testing the underside of its 50-day moving average. Factors deflating investors’ embryonic optimism included the rise in the 10-year yield to, and briefly above, the emotionally significant 5.0% threshold, the increase in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices above $90 per barrel, an anticipated decline in Q3 2023 EPS for the S&P 500 that is now deeper than the end-of-quarter estimate, and recent comments by Fed Chair Powell suggesting a longer restrictive monetary stance until the economy slows sufficiently to bring inflation back down to the 2% level.