ETF & Mutual Fund, Research

How Dividend ETF Sector Divergences Could Shape 2025 Returns

Aniket Ullal, SVP and Head, ETF Research & Analytics
01 April 2025

Summary

The $500+ billion dividend ETF market just experienced a pivotal shake-up. The annual reconstitutions of the largest U.S.-listed dividend ETFs in March 2025 created a significant divergence in sector exposures, setting the stage for highly varied performance throughout the year.

This timely CFRA Thematic Research dives deep into the rebalancing outcomes, with SCHD emerging as the outlier — sharply increasing its Energy sector weight while trimming exposure to Financials. By contrast, peers like Vanguard's VIG and VYM leaned further into Financials and Health Care.

As tariffs, inflation, and sector rotations continue to dominate the market narrative, understanding these ETF composition shifts is critical for portfolio positioning. Investors can no longer assume dividend ETFs will behave uniformly. Yield, diversification, and sector exposure differ significantly — creating both opportunities and hidden risks depending on how markets evolve.

This report provides investors, advisors, and strategists with a detailed breakdown of each ETF's sector allocations, methodological differences, and the implications for dividend-focused portfolios. Whether you're seeking defensive positioning or yield optimization, knowing how these ETFs stack up after the reconstitution is essential for making informed decisions in 2025.

This report is a valuable resource for institutional investors, portfolio managers, and anyone seeking a disciplined, technically grounded perspective during uncertain times.

What You’ll Learn

In this exclusive research report, you will gain insights into:

  • How the March 2025 index reconstitution changed the sector exposures of SCHD, VIG, VYM, and DGRO
  • Why SCHD now holds the highest Energy exposure among major dividend ETFs — and what that means for investors
  • The key methodological differences between dividend ETFs and how they impact yield and risk
  • The potential performance divergence between ETFs based on sector performance, particularly Energy, Financials, and Consumer Staples
  • CFRA's perspective on how dividend ETF flows may accelerate in response to market uncertainty and tariff concern

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